The Potts Transportation Plan -- a Parody of Itself

I have to give Sen. Russ Potts credit for one thing: He's published the most detailed transportation plan yet to emerge from the 2005 gubernatorial campaign. But that's the last thing I'll give him credit for. It's scary to think that this man is running for governor largely on the basis of this plan -- and scarier still that elements of the press, the punditocracy and the public are taking him seriously.

In the first line of his plan, the Senator blurts out: "Virginia’s transportation crisis is among the­ worst in the nation and is rapidly deteriorating." He offers no evidence whatsoever for the claim that Virginia's transportation crisis is "among the worst in the nation." Compared to who? Based on levels of congestion? The condition of our roads? What? He doesn't bother to tell us.

Then comes the "analysis": How did we get here? Potts cites population growth of two million since 1980. Of course, he neglects to mention that those two million people also are paying gasoline taxes and other transportation-related fees, with the result that transportation funding has been increasing, too. Potts notes that Virginians now own three million more cars, without ever suggesting why -- could it have something to do with the scattered, disconnected, low-density pattern of development that has forced people into cars for every trip they take? Nor does he ever pause to wonder, now that Virginians collectively own more cars than they have licensed drivers, could this trend finally have expended itself as a force for greater Vehicle Miles Driven?

Proceeding through the plan, Potts eventually stumbles across a germ of truth, noting that there has been no significant increase in infrastructure investment since 1986. Because the gasoline tax is fixed, and has not been adjusted for inflation, it has shrunk in real terms. But somehow, Potts thinks that an extra $2 billion a year in tolls and taxes will do the trick. The Warner administration's transportation plan, VTrans2025, says that the state will need $5.4 billion a year on average over the next 20 years if we want to be able to build our way out of our predicament. Nowhere does Potts say how he determined that a mere $2 billion a year will suffice to do the job.

Nowhere in his plan does Potts acknowledge the existence of alternative approaches to providing access and mobility. He doesn't even give lip service to alternatives, as the Warner plan at least did, suggesting that he doesn't even know they exist. Potts totally ignores the impact of scattered land uses and poor urban design upon the frequency and distance with which people drive their cars. He totally ignores the potential for demand-management strategies such as ride sharing. He totally ignores the potential to increase the capacity of existing infrastructure through such techniques as ramp metering and traffic light synchronization. He totally ignores the seismic shift in the relationship between workers and the workplace, which are profoundly altering commuting patterns.

The Potts plan is an extremist platform. It incorporates none of the mainstream insights found in VTrans2025 or the Texas Transportation Institute's 2005 Urban Mobility Study, much less acknowledging the critiques of environmentalists, urban planners, New Urbanists or Smart Growthers. The Potts plan is a parody of itself -- a plan that even the most fervent advocates of the road building lobby would be embarrassed to present to the public.

The really sad thing is that editorial boards around Virginia no doubt will commence singing Potts' praises for the daring of his vision rather than the depth of his ignorance.