Tuesday, September 13, 2005

The Potts Transportation Plan -- a Parody of Itself

I have to give Sen. Russ Potts credit for one thing: He's published the most detailed transportation plan yet to emerge from the 2005 gubernatorial campaign. But that's the last thing I'll give him credit for. It's scary to think that this man is running for governor largely on the basis of this plan -- and scarier still that elements of the press, the punditocracy and the public are taking him seriously.

In the first line of his plan, the Senator blurts out: "Virginia’s transportation crisis is among the­ worst in the nation and is rapidly deteriorating." He offers no evidence whatsoever for the claim that Virginia's transportation crisis is "among the worst in the nation." Compared to who? Based on levels of congestion? The condition of our roads? What? He doesn't bother to tell us.

Then comes the "analysis": How did we get here? Potts cites population growth of two million since 1980. Of course, he neglects to mention that those two million people also are paying gasoline taxes and other transportation-related fees, with the result that transportation funding has been increasing, too. Potts notes that Virginians now own three million more cars, without ever suggesting why -- could it have something to do with the scattered, disconnected, low-density pattern of development that has forced people into cars for every trip they take? Nor does he ever pause to wonder, now that Virginians collectively own more cars than they have licensed drivers, could this trend finally have expended itself as a force for greater Vehicle Miles Driven?

Proceeding through the plan, Potts eventually stumbles across a germ of truth, noting that there has been no significant increase in infrastructure investment since 1986. Because the gasoline tax is fixed, and has not been adjusted for inflation, it has shrunk in real terms. But somehow, Potts thinks that an extra $2 billion a year in tolls and taxes will do the trick. The Warner administration's transportation plan, VTrans2025, says that the state will need $5.4 billion a year on average over the next 20 years if we want to be able to build our way out of our predicament. Nowhere does Potts say how he determined that a mere $2 billion a year will suffice to do the job.

Nowhere in his plan does Potts acknowledge the existence of alternative approaches to providing access and mobility. He doesn't even give lip service to alternatives, as the Warner plan at least did, suggesting that he doesn't even know they exist. Potts totally ignores the impact of scattered land uses and poor urban design upon the frequency and distance with which people drive their cars. He totally ignores the potential for demand-management strategies such as ride sharing. He totally ignores the potential to increase the capacity of existing infrastructure through such techniques as ramp metering and traffic light synchronization. He totally ignores the seismic shift in the relationship between workers and the workplace, which are profoundly altering commuting patterns.

The Potts plan is an extremist platform. It incorporates none of the mainstream insights found in VTrans2025 or the Texas Transportation Institute's 2005 Urban Mobility Study, much less acknowledging the critiques of environmentalists, urban planners, New Urbanists or Smart Growthers. The Potts plan is a parody of itself -- a plan that even the most fervent advocates of the road building lobby would be embarrassed to present to the public.

The really sad thing is that editorial boards around Virginia no doubt will commence singing Potts' praises for the daring of his vision rather than the depth of his ignorance.

180 Comments:

At 7:32 AM, Blogger Steve Haner said...

"....much less acknowledging the critiques of environmentalists, urban planners, New Urbanists or Smart Growthers."

Now, that is a recipe for a Jeff McNally cartoon if I ever saw one...Giving my age away.

 
At 8:00 AM, Blogger Jim Wamsley said...

Your comparison with the VTrans2025 numbers creates problems for those of us who have looked at them. The project list in VTrans2025 is not based on the first part of the study. It is based on VDOTs policy of more of the same. The first step to a solution for our transportation problems is a step away from more of the same.

We need to move to a plan that reflects the Commonwealths needs spelled out in the first section of Vtrans2025. We need a balanced transportation system. One where railroads carry freight and transit provides transportation for rush hour trips and families with only one car.

Only with a good plan can we get a good price. The Potts plan doesn’t qualify.

 
At 2:20 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

It's called reality folks.


The Roanoke Times


Potts gets serious about transportation

The independent offered a plan to tackle Virginia's infrastructure problems, which is more than his opponents can say.

Only one gubernatorial candidate has had something convincingly intelligent to say about Virginia's decaying transportation infrastructure, but he has not been welcomed onto the stage with his two mainstream opponents.

Russ Potts, the Republican state senator running for governor as an independent, on Monday officially unveiled plans to spend at least $2 billion annually on roads and rails.

Potts recognizes that Virginia's groaning transportation system threatens to undermine the commonwealth's ability to compete with other states for businesses, and he proposes to do something about it.

Indeed, J. Robert Bray, executive director of the Port of Virginia, recently told Virginia Business Magazine that his biggest worry about the port is worsening traffic congestion in Hampton Roads. Land delays could soon drive international shippers to other ports. Hence, the port authority in recent years has been advocating a third crossing of the Chesapeake Bay.

Likewise, the Coalfields Expressway that would link Southwest Virginia to Kentucky and West Virginia has been mostly dead since the federal government suspended funding this summer.

Those two projects are among the many improvements Potts proposes to complete. And he is not just making empty campaign promises. The independent candidate concedes that Virginia does not have $2 billion just lying around, so he has laid out a mostly sensible combination of tax increases and tolls on major interstates to raise it.

Of course the odds of a package of tax increases and highway tolls making it through the General Assembly on the heels of the tax increases approved last year to balance the budget, restore Virginia's solid bond rating and replenish the rainy day fund are slimmer than Potts' chances of winning the governor's office at this point.

Nevertheless, he is injecting valuable, rational debate into a race that has relied too much on sound bites.

Arguments from his opponents based on the merits of serious proposals will probably remain elusive, though. A three-way debate will happen only if Potts climbs to 15 percent support in two independent polls in the next few weeks. He is currently polling in single digits.

Potts is running a serious, issues-based campaign. Virginia voters would benefit if his opponents adopted a similar approach.

 
At 10:48 PM, Blogger Ray Hyde said...

Potts doesn't give any evidence for his claim that Virginias transportation crisis is among the worst in the nation: his plan is not designed to do that. It is mainly a list of bullet points without backup. In that it is an incomplete plan.

But the Texas Transportation Study lists DC/MD/VA as number seve on the list and Norfolk is 20 or some such number. Richmond, not surprisingly, is not on the list.

I'll take his statement at face value, considering much of the state is rural and has much less of a problem, or a different problem, depending on your point of view.

Those two million are paying gas taxes by the gallon, not by the dollar, so real expenditures have shrunk.

I don't really care how many cars Virginians own. They only drive one at a time. I own six vehicles, Nine counting my tractors. I drive the one that makes sense for what I am doing.

Scatterd disconnected development has not been shown to increase the amount people drive, in and of itself. There are many other factors. Even if they are driving further, the British stats show they are spending no more time in travel. Low density development and travel costs less and pollutes less. See VTPI.

There have been no real infrastrucure investments since 1986 because "Those two million are paying gas taxes by the gallon, not by the dollar, so real expenditures have shrunk." We need more money.

By your own argument VDOT says we need to spend 5.4 billion a year if past trends continue, but there is no reason to think they will. $2 billion is not enough to comply with VDOT's inflated plans, but it might be enough to make a huge difference or catch up on some of what we should have done long ago.

A three percent increase in road capacity will result in a ten percent decrease in congestion.

We don't have any idea how to measure access, let alone improve it. Access is one of the most nebulous arguments available. It means something entirely different to a trucker, a shopper, a commuter, a baby stroller. No one knows what alternative methods will improve access, Not Potts, not me, not you. Such a computation has never been made.

Thje Potts plan does give lip service to the alternatives: one of his bullets is "Put every possible solution on the table." What more do you want? His plan does not go into specific details such as ramp metering: it is not intended to.

I don't know what you read in the Texas Transportation study, but it's major premise is that more construction is needed, and it gives a rule of thumb how much is needed. It also adressed other factors such as improved accident response, and road construction management.

Land use gets one sentence with no evidence that scattered land use is a problem or any idea that we actually now how to make better land use plans.

I don't see this as an extremist plan. It may be bad, it may be incomplete, it may be wrong, but as you say, it is the most detailed plan our governors candidates have given us. Congestion is not going away at any price, so what we have to deal with is how much can we aford to alleviate.

What else have I got to go on? I actually find the ideas of the environmentalists, urban planners, New Urbanists or Smart Growthers attractive, but they are utterly unsupported by fact, so I can't agree with them just because you claim they are better.

Show me a plan. The plan you have in mind shouldn't cost more than three or four times what Potts suggests, and I'd be willing to pay it if I thought the results were going to be three or four times as good.

Your plan is going to have to be better than your critique of Potts' plan.

(I can't stand Potts, by the way, but he still has the best ideas so far exposed on this topic.)

 
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