Thursday, September 22, 2005

HOT Lane Revenues Don't Add Up, VDOT Says

Both groups proposing to build high-occupancy toll lanes down the middle of the Interstate 95 corridor in Northern Virginia have overestimated how much additional revenue they could generate to support transit projects, says The Free Lance-Star this morning.

Chief VDOT financial officer Barbara Reese told the panel reviewing the two proposals that the numbers don't add up. Says the story:

'For instance, the Fluor/Transurban plan estimates that excess toll revenues will generate about $510 million for transit over about 60 years--about $60 million in the first 20 years.
Reese said her examination indicates that only $22 million would be available in the first two decades.

The Clark/Shirley proposal indicates that $449 million could be generated for transit purposes--about $173 million in the first 20 years.

But Reese's analysis--which added in higher maintenance and operations costs--dropped that amount to zero.'

No reaction in the story from either of the two groups, but they're expected to answer Reese's analysis at the next panel meeting Oct. 11.


At 11:40 AM, Blogger Hirons said...

What's more important, and the FLS didn't report on, was the COG reveiw which said the estimates for the price of tolls both companies proposed is too low to maintain an adequate level of service and keep HOV free. The COG estimate segments the corridor from Fredericksburg to 14th Street Bridge. The cost starts at roughly $1.10 per mile and rises to as much as $1.60 per mile in the more congested areas around the Springfield interechange. Some of the audience members quickly did some math to figure out based on the COG numbers it be roughly $42 per one way trip from Fredericksburg to DC, $30+ from Occoquan to DC.

VDOT needs to table these plans immediately. Or as the Potomac News said in their Sept. 21 editorial - stuffed in a dark drawer in the basement of VDOT headquarters.

At 12:01 PM, Anonymous sdh4vbt said...

I think it makes perfect sense to charge a $40 daily toll rather than take the political risk of an incresdr in the gas tax or license fees that might cost the average family $150 a year (less than the cost of one week's tolls.)

That is the political math we are dealing with, charge a very few people a whole lot of money in order to avoid charging everybody a very little amount of money.

At 4:35 PM, Blogger Jim Bacon said...

Steve, How much are you figuring that $150 per family per year will raise? Just curious.

At 5:03 PM, Blogger Ray Hyde said...

I think the population is around 7 million, if the size of a family averages 3.5 then that would be $300 million.

Don't tax you, don't tax me, tax the guy behind the tree.

How many people or jobs will move to avoid the extra tax (toll)?

At 5:08 PM, Blogger Ray Hyde said...

2,699,173 households in 2000, works out to $404,875,950.

In 2000.


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